West Central & Southwest Ohio January 2023 Real Estate Market Update — The Lowry Team - eXp Realty

Real Estate Market Update

January 11, 2023

What's going on in our local real estate market?

Today I want to talk about just what is going on in our local real estate markets. I don't mean what's going on in the big national picture. You can find that anywhere in Google, Fox News, CNN, wherever you get your news there's all kinds of horror stories about how the real estate markets this and that and so forth. And so what I want to dig into is what's really going on here. We don't really care that much about Phoenix Arizona or Las Vegas Nevada, or any of those kinds of places. We care about what's going on in our neighborhood, in our areas. And so today, I want to chat just a little bit about that.

What's going on? First, let's tackle sales. What is going on with home sales in our area? They're down, for sure they are. There's almost no way that we weren't going to get to this point sooner or later. And a lot of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve has definitely forced our hand on that, that home sales are dropping. But we were at such record highs the last couple years that it was inevitable that we were going to see a downturn of some kind, just in the comparison of numbers. And that's where we are

It's a combination of you can't stay up at the peak forever, there's always going to be peaks and valleys in any kind of market, and interest rates have slowed things as well. Right now, home sales in our area are down, year over year for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, home sales are down 29.01%. It's pretty big. That's a pretty big drop. Honestly, actually it was a little bit larger when I did the calculation on it then I might have thought it was. And yet, like I said, it was inevitable.

I think that what will really determine where we are going or what this really looks like is we move into the first and second quarter of next year, of 2023, I guess that's this year now, and really start to compare backwards that way when the market did start to slow. So let's see where we really stand there. So home sales definitely fell 29.01%

Average sale price, prices of homes, what are they selling for? They're not falling. A lot of people out there want to be the doom-and-gloomers that are talking about home prices falling and so forth. Certain parts of the country, I'm certain they are, and maybe it'll even happen here at some point. Yet I have seen no evidence of that so far. And in fact, what I saw in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, home prices were up 4.56%. So not quite to 5%, but super close

Over the course of time, that's a really good number for home price appreciation. It's nothing like we were seeing in the 16, 18, 20% ranges that we were seeing the last couple of years, and yet that wasn't normal. It wasn't sustainable. And so 5% or somewhere in that range, pretty good. Home prices are still continuing to grow, they're just growing at more of a normal calmer pace now.

Days on market for homes. Here is one that might shock a lot of people, but it basically hasn't changed. The fourth quarter of 2022, the average days on market for homes that sold and closed was 18 days on market. What was it in 2021 fourth quarter? 15. So it increased by three days.

When we bring a home to market, our average days on market in the last 90 to 120 days is in the three to five days range. We're really good at marketing, we're really good at pricing. And the combination of those two things mean homes will sell quickly.

The list to sale price ratio has seen a little bit of a change. The list to sale price ratio, meaning the price that the home sells for versus what it was listed for, that percentage. In the last quarter, for the fourth quarter of 2022, we saw the list to sale price ratio was 98.62%, 98.62%. And so that compared to in 2021, the fourth quarter was 99.6. So basically it's 1% lower, which means there is in the total marketplace, we're seeing more negotiating on the price of homes than there was in the past.

We went through a period, early 2022, almost all of 2021, where that average list to sale price ratio was 101%. Homes were selling and selling for over list price, and some of them quite a bit, as you might know. Now, it's calmed more. We're selling homes, they're selling for close to list price still, and yet they're not really seeing a lot of that really over list price kind of action. So it means it's a little bit more normal basically. There's always been a period of time where we negotiated prices back and forth and things didn't always sell for full price, it's where we've arrived back to.

So hopefully this is helpful to you to understand what's going on in our local real estate market. If you have questions about your neighborhood, if you have questions about what your home might sell for or maybe what you need to do to your home to get it ready to sell, please reach out. There are a number of ways you can contact us. Go to our website, which is www.lowryteam.com or feel free to give us a call, 513-547-2111 is the number, you can call us that way. You can go to the website. Reach out, let us know how we can help you.

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